Without Regard to Sign
(percentage points, annual rates)
Annual and comprehensive updates are released in late September. Annual updates generally cover at least the five most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts. Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.
Unlike GDP, advance current quarterly estimates of GDI and corporate profits are not released because data on domestic profits and net interest of domestic industries are not available. For fourth quarter estimates, these data are not available until the third estimate.
GDP by industry and gross output estimates are released with the third estimate of GDP.
This is a list of the best data collection companies in Kenya. Data collection is the systematic process of gathering and measuring information on targeted variables. It involves methods such as interviews, observations, focus groups, oral history, questionnaires and surveys.
Here is a list of the best data collection companies in Kenya.
1. Sycom Africa
Sycom Africa is one of Kenya’s most innovative data collection companies with a widespread network. It collects data for insurance companies, the healthcare industry, revenue automation and government agencies.
Location: Real Towers, 3rd Floor, Upperhill.
Email: [email protected].
2. Charima Company Ltd
The company offers research data collection services in Sub-saharan Africa, data processing, statistical data analysis, surveys and go scripting services.
Location: Roysambu, Kamiti Road, Nairobi.
Contact: 0796 112 204.
Email: [email protected].
3. Pan African Research Services Ltd
It offers data collection and processing services, market research, social-economic research, baseline survey, opinion polls, employee and customer satisfaction surveys.
Location: Off Waiyaki Way, Nairobi.
Contact: 0716 553 880, 0738 856 848.
Email: [email protected].
4. Consumer Insight Africa
Consumer Insight offers a data collection service that allows you to rely on their market research expertise to collect the exact data that you need.
Contact: 0722 202 313, 0733 638 001.
Email: [email protected].
5. Firstdata Ventures Ltd
As a data collection company, it serves a multitude of clients including multilateral/bilateral development partners, various NGO’s, government institutions and agencies.
Location: Britam Tower, 24th Floor, Upperhill, Nairobi.
Contact: 0721 483 904.
Email: [email protected].
6. Laterite
Laterite is a data, research and technical advisory firm specialising in data collection projects, including both in-person and phone-based surveys.
Location: 3rd Floor, Kalamu House, Grevillea House, Nairobi.
Contact: 0740 346 924.
7. Researchcare Africa
It is one of the best data collection companies in Kenya, with a wide network and professional staff able to handle any type of project.
Location: Kush Office, Rhapta Road, Westlands.
Contact: 020 529 1934.
Email: [email protected].
8. Research 8020
Research 8020 is a well-established firm that offers data collection services, market research, monitoring and evaluation services.
Location: 14 Dikdik Garden, Kileleshwa.
Contact: 0780 208 021.
Email: [email protected].
9. Orbital Africa
The company specialises in GIS mobile data collection and processing using GPS enabled devices and mobile GIS app, field data collection using GPS receivers, drones and smart apps.
Location: 1st Floor, Africa Creative Centre, Karen.
Contact: 0719 672 296.
Email: [email protected].
10. Qualiquant Service Ltd
It is a research and data collection company with expertise in data collection for survey research, randomised controlled trials, needs assessment and implementation evaluation.
Location: Westpark Suites, Ojijo Road, Parklands.
Contact: 0721 268 444.
List Of Best Market Research Companies In Kenya
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Market Research In Kenya – In the Previous article, we took a look at why your company should do Market Research. We also analysed the periods when it’s appropriate to do a market research in Kenya. This article will answer to other questions. What do you research during your company Market Research In Kenya? What […]
Market Research in Kenya – When Should Companies Conduct a Market Research in Kenya ? Is there a wrong time to do Market Research? Not really. However, Conducting Research at the right time can significantly alter the results you get. Market Research is critical to new start-ups survival. Before launching a Company or a Product, […]
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Home » Blog » List Of Best Marketing Research Companies In Kenya As Of 2021
Are you looking for the List Of Best Marketing Research Companies In Kenya? If yes, then this informative article is for you. You will be given detailed information about the List Of Best Marketing Research Companies In Kenya As Of 2021.
Market research plays an important role in any organization. The main work of market research companies is to collect data and analyze that information to know the needs, size, and competitive trends within a marketplace. Market research firms in Kenya have their branches and affiliated partners in several other countries.
Research companies have to collect two different types of data: Primary data and Secondary data.
Collecting primary data is very time consuming and more expensive. To collect primary data, researchers directly approach the customers and obtain data by forwarding questionnaire to target respondents. The data acquired through primary research is accurate by nature.
Secondary data does not require any kind of interaction with customers. Researchers obtain the secondary data through various resources, such as newspapers, magazines, journals and the Internet. Collecting secondary data is less time-consuming.
The market research companies use many techniques to gather information through customers. The techniques used by different market research companies are – personal interviews, telephonic interviews, focus group, surveys, observation, etc.
There are also other techniques used by research companies, such as – Mobile market research method, Bio-metric market research techniques, Virtual shopping, live audience response, Social media market research, etc.
In Kenya, there are many research companies incorporated in the past few years. The techniques used by market research companies in Kenya are-
There are many research companies established in Kenya. The list of research companies in Kenya are given below:
Sunflower Events (K) Limited offers complete event management services. We create unique events with excellent management through acute attention to detail; by taking responsibility of creative, technical and logistical elements of it.
We have been in business since 2009 and we do the provision of event supplies, décor services and event management solutions. Our vision is creating innovative spaces to connect and share. The services we pride ourselves on include: Brand Activations, Event Concepts, Brand Management, Event Marketing, Experiential Marketing, Event Production and Execution, Exhibition Management, Event Relationship Management, PR and Communication.
2020 saw the cancellation of Conferences, Expos, festivals, sporting events, concerts and basically any social gatherings in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19.
We at Sunflower Events Kenya, have embraced innovative ways of doing events virtually. Having a hybrid event is what we are talking about. We combine both in-person and virtual experiences to create events that take into account the technical aspect that is required to ensure your webinar or hybrid event is well equipped with the necessary digital platforms.
We combine passion with efficiency, personality with originality and excellence with attention to detail to organize stunning launches, Conferences, Concerts, Expos, Anniversaries, Gala nights, Annual General Meetings, Graduations and End of year celebrations.
We will save you the time and hassle of event planning. We, therefore, aim to understand the scope to ensure end-to-end planning for a successful event.
For more information, please visit our website www.thesunflowerevents.com
Or contact us on email at [email protected] or call us on Tel. +254 (0) 705430415, Mobile. 0722790632
Consumer Insight was founded in 1998. This is a full-service market research agency. The services offered by Consumer Insight include:
Survey and Statistics Solution Kenya was established in 2011. There are many statistical research companies in Kenya but Survey and Statistical Solutions Kenya is the best statistical research company. This company has specialized in statistical consultancy services (qualitative and quantitative), data design, management, and analysis, using a wide range of data management tools. SSSK offers comprehensive services in the survey, research, and analysis.
Address- P.O box 12445-20100, Eldoret, Kenya.
Consumer Option Ltd was founded in 2004. This is a full-service market research company. One of the fastest growing market research agencies in East Africa is Consumer Option Ltd. Consumer Option Ltd has been conducting market research in East Africa and rest of Africa. The services offered by Consumer Option Ltd are Undertaking Ad Hoc and continuous research, Brand Strategy Studies, Communication Studies,
Innovation Studies, Market Understanding / Segmentation Studies, Syndicated Omnibus Studies Corporate Image / Corporate Social Responsibility Studies and Ethnography studies.
Infinite Insight Ltd was founded in 2010. Infinite Insight Ltd Specialize in consumer research (FMCG& Telecoms). This also invests heavily in health and agricultural research across Sub-Saharan Africa.
Research Solution Africa Ltd was founded in 1996 and had been offering research services to clients across Africa. The services provided by the Research Solution Africa Ltd are survey design, data collection, data analysis, and reporting. Among the social research companies in Kenya, Research Solution Africa Ltd is the oldest social research company.
The social research clients of Research Solution Africa Ltd includes the World Bank, USAID, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Siemens Foundation, Microsave, SNV and several universities.
Address: Whitefield Place, School Lane Westlands, Nairobi
P.O box 16832-00620 Nairobi, Kenya
8. Numbers Africa
9. Sagaci Research
10. GFK Retail & Technology East Africa Ltd
11. Research Solutions Africa Ltd
12. Voices Africa Limited
13. Kasi Insight Africa
Research Institute can be defined as one where different kinds of programmes are offered under a particular research area. There are many research institutes in Kenya, as given below;
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09-01-2024 WORK LIFE
The creative process invites doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals to remember what it means to be human, to be vulnerable.
[Source Photo: Ani Kolleshi /Unsplash]
BY The Conversation 5 minute read
Doctors and nurses seldom learn in school how to tell a family that their loved one is not going to survive. Yet healthcare professionals face the immense burden of tragedy, illness, and dying in an intensely stressful setting as a routine, ongoing part of their jobs.
Long before the COVID-19 pandemic, research was documenting rampant stress and burnout among healthcare professionals.
The effects of this crisis are widespread in the U.S. In 2022, Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy raised concerns about the alarming levels of burnout in the healthcare community in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Studies show that if current trends continue, the U.S. will see a shortage of 1.1 million registered nurses, 3 million other healthcare workers and more than 140,000 physicians by 2033 . A 2022 Mayo Clinic study reported that only 58% of physicians would choose to become a doctor again if offered a chance to revisit their career choice, dropping from 72% from just one year before.
For nearly two decades, our research group —a team of physicians, researchers, creative arts therapists, and writers—has focused on understanding the impact of work-related stress on healthcare workers. In our experience, almost every healthcare worker has a story about navigating the times when the weight of the profession is just too much to bear.
To help address this issue, in 2019, with funding from the National Endowment for the Arts, our team established the Colorado Resiliency Arts Lab, or CORAL. Our aim is to use creative arts therapy as an intervention to improve the well-being of healthcare professionals and to restore their sense of purpose in these demanding work environments.
As physicians who have worked in critical care and emergency medicine for many years, we think that this incorporation of creativity in healthcare is vital. The nation’s health depends on the well-being of the healthcare workforce. We believe that incorporating creativity and the arts as a tool for building resiliency in healthcare workers could help shift the culture of emotional isolation that healthcare workers live in.
We as healthcare workers push ourselves to the limits to learn new ways to enhance human health. The irony is that this often comes at the expense of our own physical, emotional, and mental health. We learn to mask emotions and internalize all the negative events we see in healthcare. But that is unsustainable.
In the 2000s, up to 80% of critical care nurses reported experiencing burnout or other forms of psychological distress . This was contributing to a high turnover rate, with 67% of nurses planning to leave their positions within three years . That was leading to a rise in healthcare costs, compassion fatigue among workers , and diminished quality of care for patients.
Then came the COVID-19 pandemic, which intensified the stress on healthcare workers: three in five physicians reported burnout during the height of the omicron variant in 2022.
A combination of higher job demands, workload, job complexity, job pressure, and intensive working time during the COVID‐19 pandemic increased stress among healthcare professionals and led to emotional exhaustion .
Satisfaction with work-life balance dropped from 46.1% in 2020 to 30.2% in 2021 .
In the post-COVID-19 era, healthcare workers like us are at higher risk for anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder . Burned-out healthcare professionals are unlikely to seek professional treatment and, as a result, tend to experience heightened levels of substance use, depression, and suicidal thoughts.
In ancient Greece and Rome, participation in the arts was “prescribed” for people with depression or anxiety. Likewise, for centuries, tribal communities have used dance, music, and art to facilitate physical and mental healing in individuals.
Our focus at CORAL has been on teaching healthcare workers how to use art-making to effectively process trauma and develop coping mechanisms through expression and community. We invite our participants, who include doctors, nurses, social workers, therapists, and researchers, to tap into their authentic vulnerabilities and share stories they would not normally tell by using pen and paper, paintbrushes, guitars, songwriting, and movement.
From 2020 to 2023, we carried out six cohorts of our 12-week clinical trial of creative arts therapy interventions involving healthcare professionals working at least half-time. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four creative arts therapy groups: art, music, dance/movement, and writing, with 12 weekly sessions lasting 90 minutes each.
We measured participants’ levels of anxiety, depression, burnout, PTSD, and job satisfaction through validated questionnaires and asked the same questions again after the conclusion of the intervention. We also measured those scores in a control group that did not take part in the intervention.
The results were eye-opening. Study participants experienced less burnout and expressed a lower desire to leave their jobs. Burnout scores for anxiety, depression, PTSD, and emotional exhaustion decreased by 28%, 36%, 26%, and 12%, respectively, in the participants receiving the creative arts therapy intervention. These improvements remained up to one year after the conclusion of the program.
Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that creative arts therapy can be an effective tool for dealing with healthcare worker burnout across the globe.
We believe that creative art therapy is effective because it allows these healthcare professionals to be imperfect—freedoms that can be healing in and of themselves. They can use these opportunities to speak the unspeakable through an art form, which becomes a vehicle to help explore and recover from trauma.
This in turn can increase their tolerance for imperfection as well as helping them to feel grace and compassion for themselves and each other. It expands their emotional vocabularies and, in so doing, builds their resilience.
Though the roles of doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals are often glorified through terms such as superheroes and guardian angels , in reality they are human beings who make mistakes and get exhausted too.
The creative process invites them to remember what it means to be human, to be vulnerable. A healthcare professional picking up a paintbrush for the first time since kindergarten can explore feelings that have been suppressed, memories that have been buried—and even forgiveness for mistakes they may have held on to for years.
One participant in the CORAL program wrote in their feedback: “When I am given space to unmask and show all sides of who I am, I am creative and engaged. I think more deeply and clearly. I am more willing to take the risks necessary to have breakthroughs. I am a better colleague, mentor, friend, partner, and scientist. When I feel safe and supported, I can be whole.”
This article is part of Art & Science Collide , a series examining the intersections between art and science.
Marc Moss is a professor of medicine at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus .
Rafaela Mantelli is a program manager at Colorado Resiliency Arts Lab and a researcher in pulmonary sciences and critical care medicine, and worked as an emergency care physician for 6 years at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus .
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .
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Nursing is a profession that has always worked with diverse people and communities and has taken a social justice approach to care. Nursing has also undertaken research that includes diverse groups and communities. However, nurse researchers working with and undertaking research with diverse groups and communities may encounter problems in executing the research. This may be for reasons such as poor understanding of cultural and racial difference, not having an inclusive research team, for example, LGBTQIA+ researchers to help conduct LGBTQIA+ focused research or using an ableist approach, all of which can lead to exclusion, diminished trust and credibility. In this commentary, we draw on Hollowood’s doctoral journey and Moorley’s research experience, where both work with and research diverse communities’ health. Nurse researchers need to apply methodologies and approaches that are culturally sensitive and inclusive and here we offer essential tips, which have helped us by drawing on culturally specific and diversity-sensitive methods and frameworks to support inquiries which aim to improve the situation of the diverse communities nursing serves.
Whiteness has dominated nursing, 1 and this also extends to nursing research where dominant western philosophies and methodologies are applied. Nurse researchers have not had many culturally and racially sensitive frameworks to choose from and so their research on, for example, race and culture has mainly used frameworks framed on whiteness and this can lead to health and care being interpreted, analysed and recommendations made based on white lens. One of the frameworks we advocate for is The Silences Framework. 2 It is a powerful tool to help uncover and understand marginalised discourses in research. This framework explicitly supports the researcher to identify and address the ‘silences’ which sit within a group and impact on their experiences and perspectives. ‘Silences’ refers to the areas of research that we know little about, …
Funding The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.
Competing interests None declared.
Provenance and peer review Commissioned; internally peer reviewed.
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Bilateral Relations Fact Sheet
Bureau of African Affairs
October 31, 2023
More information about Kenya is available on the Kenya Page and from other Department of State publications and other sources listed at the end of this fact sheet.
U.S.-KENYA RELATIONS
The United States established diplomatic relations with Kenya in 1964, following its December 1963 independence from the United Kingdom. The United States and Kenya have enjoyed cordial relations and an enduring partnership since Kenya’s independence. Relations became closer after Kenya’s 2002 democratic transition and subsequent improvements in civil liberties. Longstanding mutual interests in the region and wide-ranging cooperation on economic and security issues underpin a strong bilateral relationship. Kenya has East Africa’s most dynamic economy and is a growing regional business and financial hub. The ongoing negotiations for the U.S.-Kenyan strategic trade and investment partnership is an important pillar of the U.S.-Kenya relationship. In 2018, the United States and Kenya formally elevated the relationship to a strategic partnership and established a corresponding bilateral strategic dialogue. The dialogue prioritizes five pillars of engagement: economic prosperity, trade, and investment; defense cooperation; democracy, governance, and civilian security; multilateral and regional issues; and public health cooperation.
Ethnic-based political divisions, interference in key institutions, corruption, and impunity have posed challenges to Kenya’s democracy. After widespread inter-ethnic violence marred the 2007 presidential election, Kenya adopted a new constitution in 2010 devolving some federal powers and funding to Kenya’s 47 counties. The 2013 and 2017 elections were more peaceful, though concerns remained about the independence and credibility of democratic institutions and the government’s adherence to the rule of law. Independent observers praised Kenya’s national elections on August 9, 2022, as free, fair, credible, and peaceful. Presidential candidate and former prime minister Raila Odinga contested the outcome before the Supreme Court, which unanimously upheld the victory of former deputy president William Ruto. . Ruto was sworn in as president on September 13, 2022. United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai led President Biden’s delegation to the inauguration of President Ruto.
U.S. Security Relationship with Kenya
The United States and Kenya have a shared interest in the country’s security and stability, and that commitment is reflected in our partnership on regional and global security issues. For more than 70 years, the United States has developed a defense cooperation framework to advance our national interests with our Kenyan security partners. The returns on this investment are readily visible through the Kenya Defense Forces’ (KDF) participation in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia and in the KDF’s proven value as a partner in the fight against al-Shabaab. No competitor can match our decades-long investment in the KDF, which has benefitted from our materiel and equipment, a comprehensive maintenance and support program for U.S. defense articles, and international military education and training (IMET) programs. The United States has four security assistance objectives in Kenya: 1) professionalize the Kenyan military forces; 2) increase Kenyan counterterrorism and border security capabilities; 3) increase maritime security awareness; and 4) improve peacekeeping capabilities. Our longstanding security assistance program is a cornerstone of the bilateral relationship.
U.S. Assistance to Kenya
As a developing partner in East Africa, Kenya is a recipient of significant U.S. foreign assistance from State and USAID. The United States seeks to advance its national security and economic prosperity interests by helping strengthen economic stability, security, health, education, environment, rule of law, and democratic governance in Kenya, as well as by countering violent extremism.
Bilateral Economic Relations
Kenya’s diversified economy has produced average annual GDP growth of five percent over the last decade, and an increasing number of U.S. companies have established their regional or Africa-wide headquarters in Nairobi. Kenya remains East Africa’s largest and most important business, financial, and transportation hub, with 80 percent of East Africa’s trade flowing through Mombasa Port. The United States is a top three destination for Kenya’s exports and the seventh largest source of its imports. Kenya enjoys preferential trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act through 2025. U.S. imports from Kenya include apparel, coffee, and tea. More than 120,000 U.S. citizens visited the country in each of the last two years, making the United States the leading source of tourists to Kenya. Launched in 2018, Kenya Airways’ three times per week New York-Nairobi direct flights provide seamless connections. U.S. private sector interest in Kenya remains robust, with numerous U.S. companies engaged in Kenya, especially in the technology, consumer goods, banking and finance, and healthcare sectors. The United States’ existing trade and investment framework agreements with both the East African Community and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa include Kenya as a member state.
On July 14, 2022, the United States and Kenya announced the launch of the U.S.-Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership. Both governments agreed to pursue enhanced engagement towards a bilateral trade agreement that would increase investment; promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth; benefit workers, consumers, and businesses; and support African regional economic integration. Key areas for engagement include agriculture; anti corruption; digital trade; environment and climate change action; good regulatory practices; micro, small and medium enterprises; promoting workers’ rights and protections; supporting participation of women, youth, and others in trade; standards collaboration; and trade facilitation and customs procedures.
Educational and Cultural Exchange
The U.S.-Kenyan partnership includes collaboration on academic, cultural, and sports exchange programs, as well as social inclusion initiatives that engage diverse communities. Kenya is a strong supporter of English-language education, academic mobility initiatives, and bilateral exchanges. Students, government officials, and professionals from both countries have participated in a wide variety of U.S. and Kenyan government-supported academic and specialized exchange programs, including the Fulbright Program and the Young African Leadership Initiative’s Mandela Washington Fellowship. The U.S. government supports a network of five American Spaces in Kenya. These spaces provide a wide range of resources to Kenyans, including high-quality English-language teaching and free cultural events and educational advising services.
Kenya’s Membership in International Organizations
Kenya and the United States belong to a number of the same international organizations, including the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and World Trade Organization. In December 2022, Kenya completed a two-year term as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. Kenya and the United States are both serving on the Steering Committee of the Open Government Partnership (OGP), where Kenya is currently the Co-Chair. Kenya is also a member of several regional international organizations including the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, and the East African Community.
Bilateral Representation
Principal embassy officials are listed in the Department’s Key Officers List .
Kenya maintains an embassy in the United States at 2249 R Street NW, Washington, DC 20008 (tel. 202-387-6101).
CIA World Factbook Kenya Page U.S. Embassy USAID Kenya Page History of U.S. Relations With Kenya Office of the U.S. Trade Representative Country Page U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Statistics Export.gov International Offices Page Millennium Challenge Corporation: Kenya Travel Information
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The size of the global online gambling and betting industry amounted to 85.62 billion U.S. dollars in 2023. This has been forecast to rise to 133.59 billion U.S. dollars by 2029. In comparison, the market size of the global sports betting and lottery industry was valued at roughly 244 billion U.S. dollars as of March 2024. Overall, the global sports betting industry constituted more than 200 thousand employees and approximately 22 thousand businesses.
In 2022, over 25 million individuals engaged in sports betting in the United States , highlighting the prevalence of the activity in the North American country. Moreover, this figure was forecast to increase by 47 percent by 2025. Overall, the total revenue from sports betting in the U.S. amounted to 11.04 billion U.S. dollars in 2023, denoting an increase of approximately 46 percent from the previous year. Meanwhile, DraftKings was the most popular sports betting website in the U.S. as of July 2023.
A lottery is a form of gambling where participants purchase numbered tickets with the aim of matching those numbers with lots, which are drawn randomly at a later date. Established in 1994, the National Lottery is a nationwide version of the activity that is regulated by the Gambling Commission of the United Kingdom. Between April 2022 and March 2023, over eight billion British pounds worth of National Lottery tickets were sold , which was slightly higher than the figure reported in the period immediately prior. Meanwhile, more than 4.6 billion British pounds were available as prize money for potential winners of the National Lottery in the same period.
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Confidence in U.S. public opinion polling was shaken by errors in 2016 and 2020. In both years’ general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump. These errors laid bare some real limitations of polling.
In the midterms that followed those elections, polling performed better . But many Americans remain skeptical that it can paint an accurate portrait of the public’s political preferences.
Restoring people’s confidence in polling is an important goal, because robust and independent public polling has a critical role to play in a democratic society. It gathers and publishes information about the well-being of the public and about citizens’ views on major issues. And it provides an important counterweight to people in power, or those seeking power, when they make claims about “what the people want.”
The challenges facing polling are undeniable. In addition to the longstanding issues of rising nonresponse and cost, summer 2024 brought extraordinary events that transformed the presidential race . The good news is that people with deep knowledge of polling are working hard to fix the problems exposed in 2016 and 2020, experimenting with more data sources and interview approaches than ever before. Still, polls are more useful to the public if people have realistic expectations about what surveys can do well – and what they cannot.
With that in mind, here are some key points to know about polling heading into this year’s presidential election.
Probability sampling (or “random sampling”). This refers to a polling method in which survey participants are recruited using random sampling from a database or list that includes nearly everyone in the population. The pollster selects the sample. The survey is not open for anyone who wants to sign up.
Online opt-in polling (or “nonprobability sampling”). These polls are recruited using a variety of methods that are sometimes referred to as “convenience sampling.” Respondents come from a variety of online sources such as ads on social media or search engines, websites offering rewards in exchange for survey participation, or self-enrollment. Unlike surveys with probability samples, people can volunteer to participate in opt-in surveys.
Nonresponse and nonresponse bias. Nonresponse is when someone sampled for a survey does not participate. Nonresponse bias occurs when the pattern of nonresponse leads to error in a poll estimate. For example, college graduates are more likely than those without a degree to participate in surveys, leading to the potential that the share of college graduates in the resulting sample will be too high.
Mode of interview. This refers to the format in which respondents are presented with and respond to survey questions. The most common modes are online, live telephone, text message and paper. Some polls use more than one mode.
Weighting. This is a statistical procedure pollsters perform to make their survey align with the broader population on key characteristics like age, race, etc. For example, if a survey has too many college graduates compared with their share in the population, people without a college degree are “weighted up” to match the proper share.
Pollsters are making changes in response to the problems in previous elections. As a result, polling is different today than in 2016. Most U.S. polling organizations that conducted and publicly released national surveys in both 2016 and 2022 (61%) used methods in 2022 that differed from what they used in 2016 . And change has continued since 2022.
One change is that the number of active polling organizations has grown significantly, indicating that there are fewer barriers to entry into the polling field. The number of organizations that conduct national election polls more than doubled between 2000 and 2022.
This growth has been driven largely by pollsters using inexpensive opt-in sampling methods. But previous Pew Research Center analyses have demonstrated how surveys that use nonprobability sampling may have errors twice as large , on average, as those that use probability sampling.
The second change is that many of the more prominent polling organizations that use probability sampling – including Pew Research Center – have shifted from conducting polls primarily by telephone to using online methods, or some combination of online, mail and telephone. The result is that polling methodologies are far more diverse now than in the past.
(For more about how public opinion polling works, including a chapter on election polls, read our short online course on public opinion polling basics .)
All good polling relies on statistical adjustment called “weighting,” which makes sure that the survey sample aligns with the broader population on key characteristics. Historically, public opinion researchers have adjusted their data using a core set of demographic variables to correct imbalances between the survey sample and the population.
But there is a growing realization among survey researchers that weighting a poll on just a few variables like age, race and gender is insufficient for getting accurate results. Some groups of people – such as older adults and college graduates – are more likely to take surveys, which can lead to errors that are too sizable for a simple three- or four-variable adjustment to work well. Adjusting on more variables produces more accurate results, according to Center studies in 2016 and 2018 .
A number of pollsters have taken this lesson to heart. For example, recent high-quality polls by Gallup and The New York Times/Siena College adjusted on eight and 12 variables, respectively. Our own polls typically adjust on 12 variables . In a perfect world, it wouldn’t be necessary to have that much intervention by the pollster. But the real world of survey research is not perfect.
Predicting who will vote is critical – and difficult. Preelection polls face one crucial challenge that routine opinion polls do not: determining who of the people surveyed will actually cast a ballot.
Roughly a third of eligible Americans do not vote in presidential elections , despite the enormous attention paid to these contests. Determining who will abstain is difficult because people can’t perfectly predict their future behavior – and because many people feel social pressure to say they’ll vote even if it’s unlikely.
No one knows the profile of voters ahead of Election Day. We can’t know for sure whether young people will turn out in greater numbers than usual, or whether key racial or ethnic groups will do so. This means pollsters are left to make educated guesses about turnout, often using a mix of historical data and current measures of voting enthusiasm. This is very different from routine opinion polls, which mostly do not ask about people’s future intentions.
When major news breaks, a poll’s timing can matter. Public opinion on most issues is remarkably stable, so you don’t necessarily need a recent poll about an issue to get a sense of what people think about it. But dramatic events can and do change public opinion , especially when people are first learning about a new topic. For example, polls this summer saw notable changes in voter attitudes following Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race. Polls taken immediately after a major event may pick up a shift in public opinion, but those shifts are sometimes short-lived. Polls fielded weeks or months later are what allow us to see whether an event has had a long-term impact on the public’s psyche.
The answer to this question depends on what you want polls to do. Polls are used for all kinds of purposes in addition to showing who’s ahead and who’s behind in a campaign. Fair or not, however, the accuracy of election polling is usually judged by how closely the polls matched the outcome of the election.
By this standard, polling in 2016 and 2020 performed poorly. In both years, state polling was characterized by serious errors. National polling did reasonably well in 2016 but faltered in 2020.
In 2020, a post-election review of polling by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) found that “the 2020 polls featured polling error of an unusual magnitude: It was the highest in 40 years for the national popular vote and the highest in at least 20 years for state-level estimates of the vote in presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial contests.”
How big were the errors? Polls conducted in the last two weeks before the election suggested that Biden’s margin over Trump was nearly twice as large as it ended up being in the final national vote tally.
Errors of this size make it difficult to be confident about who is leading if the election is closely contested, as many U.S. elections are .
Pollsters are rightly working to improve the accuracy of their polls. But even an error of 4 or 5 percentage points isn’t too concerning if the purpose of the poll is to describe whether the public has favorable or unfavorable opinions about candidates , or to show which issues matter to which voters. And on questions that gauge where people stand on issues, we usually want to know broadly where the public stands. We don’t necessarily need to know the precise share of Americans who say, for example, that climate change is mostly caused by human activity. Even judged by its performance in recent elections, polling can still provide a faithful picture of public sentiment on the important issues of the day.
The 2022 midterms saw generally accurate polling, despite a wave of partisan polls predicting a broad Republican victory. In fact, FiveThirtyEight found that “polls were more accurate in 2022 than in any cycle since at least 1998, with almost no bias toward either party.” Moreover, a handful of contrarian polls that predicted a 2022 “red wave” largely washed out when the votes were tallied. In sum, if we focus on polling in the most recent national election, there’s plenty of reason to be encouraged.
Compared with other elections in the past 20 years, polls have been less accurate when Donald Trump is on the ballot. Preelection surveys suffered from large errors – especially at the state level – in 2016 and 2020, when Trump was standing for election. But they performed reasonably well in the 2018 and 2022 midterms, when he was not.
During the 2016 campaign, observers speculated about the possibility that Trump supporters might be less willing to express their support to a pollster – a phenomenon sometimes described as the “shy Trump effect.” But a committee of polling experts evaluated five different tests of the “shy Trump” theory and turned up little to no evidence for each one . Later, Pew Research Center and, in a separate test, a researcher from Yale also found little to no evidence in support of the claim.
Instead, two other explanations are more likely. One is about the difficulty of estimating who will turn out to vote. Research has found that Trump is popular among people who tend to sit out midterms but turn out for him in presidential election years. Since pollsters often use past turnout to predict who will vote, it can be difficult to anticipate when irregular voters will actually show up.
The other explanation is that Republicans in the Trump era have become a little less likely than Democrats to participate in polls . Pollsters call this “partisan nonresponse bias.” Surprisingly, polls historically have not shown any particular pattern of favoring one side or the other. The errors that favored Democratic candidates in the past eight years may be a result of the growth of political polarization, along with declining trust among conservatives in news organizations and other institutions that conduct polls.
Whatever the cause, the fact that Trump is again the nominee of the Republican Party means that pollsters must be especially careful to make sure all segments of the population are properly represented in surveys.
The real margin of error is often about double the one reported. A typical election poll sample of about 1,000 people has a margin of sampling error that’s about plus or minus 3 percentage points. That number expresses the uncertainty that results from taking a sample of the population rather than interviewing everyone . Random samples are likely to differ a little from the population just by chance, in the same way that the quality of your hand in a card game varies from one deal to the next.
The problem is that sampling error is not the only kind of error that affects a poll. Those other kinds of error, in fact, can be as large or larger than sampling error. Consequently, the reported margin of error can lead people to think that polls are more accurate than they really are.
There are three other, equally important sources of error in polling: noncoverage error , where not all the target population has a chance of being sampled; nonresponse error, where certain groups of people may be less likely to participate; and measurement error, where people may not properly understand the questions or misreport their opinions. Not only does the margin of error fail to account for those other sources of potential error, putting a number only on sampling error implies to the public that other kinds of error do not exist.
Several recent studies show that the average total error in a poll estimate may be closer to twice as large as that implied by a typical margin of sampling error. This hidden error underscores the fact that polls may not be precise enough to call the winner in a close election.
Transparency in how a poll was conducted is associated with better accuracy . The polling industry has several platforms and initiatives aimed at promoting transparency in survey methodology. These include AAPOR’s transparency initiative and the Roper Center archive . Polling organizations that participate in these organizations have less error, on average, than those that don’t participate, an analysis by FiveThirtyEight found .
Participation in these transparency efforts does not guarantee that a poll is rigorous, but it is undoubtedly a positive signal. Transparency in polling means disclosing essential information, including the poll’s sponsor, the data collection firm, where and how participants were selected, modes of interview, field dates, sample size, question wording, and weighting procedures.
There is evidence that when the public is told that a candidate is extremely likely to win, some people may be less likely to vote . Following the 2016 election, many people wondered whether the pervasive forecasts that seemed to all but guarantee a Hillary Clinton victory – two modelers put her chances at 99% – led some would-be voters to conclude that the race was effectively over and that their vote would not make a difference. There is scientific research to back up that claim: A team of researchers found experimental evidence that when people have high confidence that one candidate will win, they are less likely to vote. This helps explain why some polling analysts say elections should be covered using traditional polling estimates and margins of error rather than speculative win probabilities (also known as “probabilistic forecasts”).
National polls tell us what the entire public thinks about the presidential candidates, but the outcome of the election is determined state by state in the Electoral College . The 2000 and 2016 presidential elections demonstrated a difficult truth: The candidate with the largest share of support among all voters in the United States sometimes loses the election. In those two elections, the national popular vote winners (Al Gore and Hillary Clinton) lost the election in the Electoral College (to George W. Bush and Donald Trump). In recent years, analysts have shown that Republican candidates do somewhat better in the Electoral College than in the popular vote because every state gets three electoral votes regardless of population – and many less-populated states are rural and more Republican.
For some, this raises the question: What is the use of national polls if they don’t tell us who is likely to win the presidency? In fact, national polls try to gauge the opinions of all Americans, regardless of whether they live in a battleground state like Pennsylvania, a reliably red state like Idaho or a reliably blue state like Rhode Island. In short, national polls tell us what the entire citizenry is thinking. Polls that focus only on the competitive states run the risk of giving too little attention to the needs and views of the vast majority of Americans who live in uncompetitive states – about 80%.
Fortunately, this is not how most pollsters view the world . As the noted political scientist Sidney Verba explained, “Surveys produce just what democracy is supposed to produce – equal representation of all citizens.”
Scott Keeter is a senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center .
Courtney Kennedy is Vice President of Methods and Innovation at Pew Research Center .
How public polling has changed in the 21st century, what 2020’s election poll errors tell us about the accuracy of issue polling, a field guide to polling: election 2020 edition, methods 101: how is polling done around the world, most popular.
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ABOUT PEW RESEARCH CENTER Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts .
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